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Bicycle Commuting 12x Deadlier Than Driving

Heeding the Goracle can be a deadly gambit.

Bicycle commuting is on the rise, as evidenced by the following articles in Treehugger.com, the Boston Herald, and  USA Today. But if the idea of hitting the road on two wheels — with little to protect you from cars and trucks but good manners — strikes you as pretty risky, you aren’t so far from the mark.

Per kilometer, cyclists are 12 times more likely than car drivers to suffer a fatal accident, according to Rutgers University urban planner John Pucher and Lewis Dijkstra of the European Commission (the same study found traveling by foot to be 23 times more dangerous than driving, per kilometer).

The unicycling stats are too morbid even to repeat.

On the other hand, if you're among the few to survive a cycling journey, you're more likely to outlive your doughy, sedentary colleagues.

[A] Danish study found that people who do not bike to work suffer a 39 percent higher mortality rate than those who do.

Increased longevity is nice and all (for people obsessed with their own subsistence, anyway), but even for those who escape the perils of walking and biking, do the health benefits they reap really justify the extra carbon they're spewing into the environment by relying on Earth-rapingly inefficient human power?

Food production is now so energy-intensive that more carbon is emitted providing a person with enough calories to walk to the shops than a car would emit over the same distance. The climate could benefit if people avoided exercise, ate less and became couch potatoes.
...
“The troubling fact is that taking a lot of exercise and then eating a bit more food is not good for the global atmosphere. Eating less and driving to save energy would be better."

Handcrafted by Flip on October 18, 2007 |

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Comments

I guess I'm obsessed with my own subsistence by cycling to work (and wearing my seatbelt and eating my greens). How about if 12X less car drivers were on the road... Would that make cycle commuting safer?

Posted by: Ol | Oct 19, 2007 3:45:22 AM

Actually, yes, the article talks about how the cycling death rate decreases as more people switch to bikes. Beyond that though, just to clarify, the above is all tongue-in-cheek. A more interesting question for the researchers might've been what the expected net effect of bicycling vs. driving to work. 12x as likely to die is still an almost insignificantly small chance - in a given year, instead of 1/10,000 (rate of American auto accident deaths/year) your odds are now 12/10,000 that you lose 30-50 (or an average of 40) years of life, due to a lethal bike commute during your career. For the health benefits, if there's an actuarially determinable extension in life expectancy gained by bike-commuting every day for those 20 years, you can make an informed comparison. The accident statistics suggest you decrease your life expectancy by about 2 weeks each year you cycle to work. Over 20 years, you've peeled off just under a year. And it's probably a good bet that the expected life extension benefit is at least a year, so if you're risk neutral on years of life, it'd be a good gamble. I'd think most folks would be significantly risk averse to premature death though (i.e. you'd be unlikely to accept a fair coin flip that paid off by adding or subtracting 30 years to your life), so that would tend to make driving incrementally attractive. It might actually be a close call (unless one of my calculations is off by a factor of 1,000 or something, which is likely).

Posted by: Flip | Oct 19, 2007 2:02:50 PM

This is a ridiculous. Comparing mileage and death rates is crazy. You can cover 100 miles in your car in a matter of hours, while it could take days to bike 100 miles. So of course. being on the road longer on a bike is going to increase your likelihood of being in an accident. Mileage seems like a really dumb way to compare accident rates.

Posted by: Tony Bullard | Sep 14, 2008 9:58:02 PM

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